The fuzzy value of patent litigation

The vague notion of "probabilistic patents" (Lemley and Shapiro, 2005) is formalized through a model which combines real option theory and a fuzzy methodology. The imprecise ideas the patent holder possesses about her future profits, the validity and scope of the patent, the litigation costs, the court’s decision. etc. under a regime of imperfect enforcement of property rights are specified using a more appropriate and promising concept of uncertainty through the theory of fuzzy sets. Such methodology is embedded within a real option approach, where the value of a patent includes the option value of litigation. We study how the value of a patent is affected by the timing and incidence of litigation. The main results are compared with the empirical findings of previous